Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (TSE:8031) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Mitsui beat expectations, with revenue hitting JP¥3.8t (12% ahead of estimates) and EPS reaching JP¥92.43 (a 4.0% beat). This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Mitsui
Taking into account the latest results, Mitsui's nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥14t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 14% to JP¥316 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥13t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥317 in 2025. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small increase to to revenue forecasts.
It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of JP¥4,314, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Mitsui's valuation in the near term. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Mitsui analyst has a price target of JP¥4,850 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,750. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 0.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Mitsui is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Mitsui going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Mitsui (of which 2 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About TSE:8031
Excellent balance sheet, good value and pays a dividend.
