Earnings Miss: Hino Motors, Ltd. Missed EPS And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a mediocre week for Hino Motors, Ltd. (TSE:7205) shareholders, with the stock dropping 17% to JP¥365 in the week since its latest interim results. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and Hino Motors delivered a statutory loss of JP¥383 per share. Revenues of JP¥848b did beat expectations by 8.8% though. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Hino Motors

Following last week's earnings report, Hino Motors' eleven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥1.63t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to JP¥379 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of JP¥1.65t and JP¥50.72 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Hino Motors even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a sizeable expansion in per-share losses.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥439, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Hino Motors analyst has a price target of JP¥500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥350. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Hino Motors' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 3.3% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 3.3% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.8% annually for the foreseeable future. Although Hino Motors' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Hino Motors. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Hino Motors' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Hino Motors analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Hino Motors , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.