Investing in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (TSE:7011) three years ago would have delivered you a 576% gain

For us, stock picking is in large part the hunt for the truly magnificent stocks. Not every pick can be a winner, but when you pick the right stock, you can win big. One bright shining star stock has been Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (TSE:7011), which is 534% higher than three years ago. We love happy stories like this one. The company should be really proud of that performance!

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

View our latest analysis for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During three years of share price growth, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries achieved compound earnings per share growth of 43% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 85% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. It is quite common to see investors become enamoured with a business, after a few years of solid progress.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We know that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? Take a more thorough look at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, it has a TSR of 576% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 85% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 48%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

But note: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.