Nidec Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Nidec Corporation (TSE:6594), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were JP¥652b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of JP¥51.38 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 19%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Nidec

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Nidec's 20 analysts is for revenues of JP¥2.74t in 2026. This reflects a satisfactory 7.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 85% to JP¥187. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥2.74t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥185 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥4,029, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Nidec analyst has a price target of JP¥5,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,600. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nidec's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 6.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Nidec's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Nidec analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Nidec's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.