Nabtesco Corporation Recorded A 5.7% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Nabtesco Corporation (TSE:6268) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues came in 5.7% below expectations, at JP¥77b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of JP¥121 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nabtesco after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Nabtesco

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Nabtesco's nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥340.3b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 6.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 97% to JP¥113. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥342.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥115 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥2,720, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Nabtesco, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,500 and the most bearish at JP¥2,230 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Nabtesco's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.4% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Nabtesco is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,720, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Nabtesco going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Nabtesco you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.