Nabtesco Corporation Just Beat EPS By 6.5%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

There's been a notable change in appetite for Nabtesco Corporation (TSE:6268) shares in the week since its full-year report, with the stock down 12% to JP¥2,386. Nabtesco reported JP¥323b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥84.25 beat expectations, being 6.5% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nabtesco after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Nabtesco

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Nabtesco's nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥339.5b in 2025. This would reflect a credible 5.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 35% to JP¥113. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥340.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥111 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥2,701, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Nabtesco analyst has a price target of JP¥3,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,240. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Nabtesco shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Nabtesco's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.0% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.6% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. Nabtesco is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Nabtesco's earnings potential next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,701, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nabtesco going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Nabtesco that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.