Okuma Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The half-yearly results for Okuma Corporation (TSE:6103) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results overall were not great, with earnings of JP¥18.90 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit JP¥95b and were slightly better than forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Okuma

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Okuma, is for revenues of JP¥203.6b in 2025. This implies a measurable 4.3% reduction in Okuma's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 15% to JP¥200 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥205.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥218 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥3,317, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Okuma, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,935 and the most bearish at JP¥2,800 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.4% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Okuma is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Okuma's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Okuma going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Okuma that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.