Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Japan Power Fastening Co.,Ltd. (TSE:5950)

Key Insights

• Japan Power FasteningLtd's estimated fair value is JP¥185 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With JP¥171 share price, Japan Power FasteningLtd appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• Peers of Japan Power FasteningLtd are currently trading on average at a 57% premium

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Japan Power Fastening Co.,Ltd. (TSE:5950) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Japan Power FasteningLtd

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (¥, Millions)	JP¥213.5m	JP¥218.7m	JP¥222.5m	JP¥225.4m	JP¥227.5m	JP¥229.2m	JP¥230.5m	JP¥231.6m	JP¥232.5m	JP¥233.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 3.37%	Est @ 2.42%	Est @ 1.75%	Est @ 1.29%	Est @ 0.96%	Est @ 0.73%	Est @ 0.57%	Est @ 0.46%	Est @ 0.38%	Est @ 0.33%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.9%	JP¥198	JP¥188	JP¥177	JP¥166	JP¥156	JP¥145	JP¥136	JP¥126	JP¥117	JP¥109

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥1.5b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥233m× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (7.9%– 0.2%) = JP¥3.0b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= JP¥3.0b÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)¹⁰= JP¥1.4b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is JP¥2.9b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of JP¥171, the company appears about fair value at a 7.8% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Japan Power FasteningLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.364. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Japan Power FasteningLtd

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Japan Power FasteningLtd, there are three essential aspects you should look at:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Japan Power FasteningLtd (1 is concerning!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com