Toyo Tanso Co., Ltd. Just Missed Revenue By 7.6%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Toyo Tanso Co., Ltd. (TSE:5310) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.8% to JP¥4,915 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues came in 7.6% below expectations, at JP¥13b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of JP¥358 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Toyo Tanso

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Toyo Tanso from eight analysts is for revenues of JP¥60.6b in 2025. If met, it would imply a meaningful 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 8.8% to JP¥461. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥61.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥466 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥7,961. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Toyo Tanso analyst has a price target of JP¥10,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥6,500. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 10% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 4.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that Toyo Tanso is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Toyo Tanso going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Toyo Tanso is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.