MonotaRO Co., Ltd. (TSE:3064) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that MonotaRO Co., Ltd. (TSE:3064) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to JP¥1,783 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of JP¥69b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥12.59 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that MonotaRO is executing in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for MonotaRO

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for MonotaRO from nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥286.4b in 2024. If met, it would imply a solid 9.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 13% to JP¥50.89. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥285.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥50.77 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥1,593, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on MonotaRO, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,200 and the most bearish at JP¥1,300 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MonotaRO's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that MonotaRO's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 13% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 0.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while MonotaRO's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,593, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for MonotaRO going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for MonotaRO that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.