Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On MonotaRO Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:3064) Annual Report

The annual results for MonotaRO Co., Ltd. (TSE:3064) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of JP¥254b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥43.90. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for MonotaRO

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from MonotaRO's nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥285.5b in 2024. This would reflect a meaningful 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 15% to JP¥50.55. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥285.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥50.62 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥1,516, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic MonotaRO analyst has a price target of JP¥1,800 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,200. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MonotaRO's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MonotaRO is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MonotaRO going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.