Kajima Corporation Recorded A 5.8% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

It's been a pretty great week for Kajima Corporation (TSE:1812) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to JP¥3,006 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in 5.8% below expectations, at JP¥705b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of JP¥239 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Kajima after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Kajima

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Kajima's six analysts is for revenues of JP¥2.91t in 2026. This would reflect an okay 7.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 13% to JP¥270. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥2.90t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥271 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,386, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Kajima, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,900 and the most bearish at JP¥3,150 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Kajima is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Kajima's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 8.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.2% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Kajima is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,386, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Kajima. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kajima going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Kajima (1 is significant) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.