Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Aso Foam Crete Co., Ltd. (TYO:1730) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Aso Foam Crete
What Is Aso Foam Crete's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2020 Aso Foam Crete had JP¥765.0m of debt, an increase on JP¥699.0m, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of JP¥558.0m, its net debt is less, at about JP¥207.0m.
How Strong Is Aso Foam Crete's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Aso Foam Crete had liabilities of JP¥1.30b due within a year, and liabilities of JP¥833.0m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of JP¥558.0m as well as receivables valued at JP¥1.18b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total JP¥401.0m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Aso Foam Crete has a market capitalization of JP¥1.80b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Aso Foam Crete's net debt is only 0.88 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 1k times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. On the other hand, Aso Foam Crete's EBIT dived 13%, over the last year. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Aso Foam Crete's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last two years, Aso Foam Crete reported free cash flow worth 12% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
Aso Foam Crete's EBIT growth rate and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT with ease. We think that Aso Foam Crete's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Aso Foam Crete (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About TSE:1730
Aso Foam Crete
Engages in the civil engineering and construction activities in Japan.
Mediocre balance sheet low.