Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.

TSE:8411 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥9.5t

Mizuho Financial Group Valuation

Is 8411 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 8411 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 8411 (¥3788) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥6650.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 8411 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 8411?

Key metric: As 8411 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 8411. This is calculated by dividing 8411's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 8411's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.5x
EarningsJP¥829.38b
Market CapJP¥9.52t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 8411's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 8411 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.8x
8316 Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
13.5x8.8%JP¥14.3t
8306 Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
12.6x5.5%JP¥20.6t
7182 JAPAN POST BANK
13.3x10.3%JP¥5.2t
8309 Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group
15.7x11.5%JP¥2.6t
8411 Mizuho Financial Group
11.5x5.5%JP¥9.5t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 8411 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the peer average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 8411's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Banks Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
8411 11.5xIndustry Avg. 9.9xNo. of Companies15PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 8411 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the JP Banks industry average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 8411's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

8411 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.5x
Fair PE Ratio13.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 8411 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 8411 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,788.00
JP¥3,892.73
+2.8%
12.1%JP¥4,760.00JP¥3,200.00n/a11
Dec ’25JP¥3,784.00
JP¥3,718.18
-1.7%
9.1%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,200.00n/a11
Nov ’25JP¥3,210.00
JP¥3,670.00
+14.3%
8.8%JP¥4,320.00JP¥3,200.00n/a11
Oct ’25JP¥3,001.00
JP¥3,670.00
+22.3%
8.8%JP¥4,320.00JP¥3,200.00n/a11
Sep ’25JP¥3,009.00
JP¥3,677.00
+22.2%
8.8%JP¥4,320.00JP¥3,200.00n/a10
Aug ’25JP¥3,427.00
JP¥3,677.00
+7.3%
8.8%JP¥4,320.00JP¥3,200.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥3,408.00
JP¥3,455.45
+1.4%
11.1%JP¥4,100.00JP¥2,500.00n/a11
Jun ’25JP¥3,214.00
JP¥3,269.09
+1.7%
9.1%JP¥3,580.00JP¥2,500.00n/a11
May ’25JP¥3,018.00
JP¥3,138.18
+4.0%
10.2%JP¥3,550.00JP¥2,500.00n/a11
Apr ’25JP¥2,937.50
JP¥3,065.45
+4.4%
12.5%JP¥3,550.00JP¥2,400.00n/a11
Mar ’25JP¥2,838.50
JP¥2,935.83
+3.4%
10.9%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,400.00n/a12
Feb ’25JP¥2,670.50
JP¥2,865.00
+7.3%
11.0%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,400.00n/a12
Jan ’25JP¥2,412.50
JP¥2,865.00
+18.8%
11.0%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,400.00n/a12
Dec ’24JP¥2,525.00
JP¥2,853.85
+13.0%
11.6%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥3,784.0013
Nov ’24JP¥2,640.00
JP¥2,821.54
+6.9%
10.8%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥3,210.0013
Oct ’24JP¥2,541.00
JP¥2,700.00
+6.3%
12.3%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥3,001.0013
Sep ’24JP¥2,450.00
JP¥2,602.14
+6.2%
14.2%JP¥3,600.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥3,009.0014
Aug ’24JP¥2,424.50
JP¥2,470.00
+1.9%
16.7%JP¥3,600.00JP¥1,870.00JP¥3,427.0014
Jul ’24JP¥2,199.00
JP¥2,332.31
+6.1%
12.5%JP¥2,900.00JP¥1,870.00JP¥3,408.0013
Jun ’24JP¥2,073.00
JP¥2,250.83
+8.6%
15.8%JP¥2,900.00JP¥1,700.00JP¥3,214.0012
May ’24JP¥2,002.00
JP¥2,191.54
+9.5%
15.4%JP¥2,900.00JP¥1,700.00JP¥3,018.0013
Apr ’24JP¥1,878.00
JP¥2,208.46
+17.6%
15.5%JP¥2,900.00JP¥1,700.00JP¥2,937.5013
Mar ’24JP¥2,124.00
JP¥2,176.15
+2.5%
16.7%JP¥2,900.00JP¥1,600.00JP¥2,838.5013
Feb ’24JP¥2,039.50
JP¥2,125.38
+4.2%
18.0%JP¥2,900.00JP¥1,600.00JP¥2,670.5013
Jan ’24JP¥1,856.00
JP¥1,978.46
+6.6%
19.1%JP¥2,900.00JP¥1,600.00JP¥2,412.5013
Dec ’23JP¥1,677.50
JP¥1,951.67
+16.3%
19.8%JP¥2,800.00JP¥1,600.00JP¥2,525.0012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 08:23
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. is covered by 37 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Shinzo MiyanagaAizawa Securities Co. Ltd.
Shinichi TamuraBarclays
Toyoki SameshimaBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)