Mazda Motor Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a mediocre week for Mazda Motor Corporation (TSE:7261) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to JP¥1,115 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥1.2t, although statutory earnings per share came in 13% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥79.10 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Mazda Motor

After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Mazda Motor are now predicting revenues of JP¥5.23t in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 5.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 13% to JP¥306 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥5.23t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥312 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥1,861, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mazda Motor at JP¥2,550 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,400. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Mazda Motor's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.7% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.6% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.2% per year. So although Mazda Motor is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Mazda Motor. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Mazda Motor analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Mazda Motor (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.