One Toscana Aeroporti S.p.A. (BIT:TYA) Analyst Just Made A Major Cut To Next Year's Estimates

The analyst covering Toscana Aeroporti S.p.A. (BIT:TYA) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analyst factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously. Shares are up 5.3% to €12.00 in the past week. It will be interesting to see if this downgrade motivates investors to start selling their holdings.

Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Toscana Aeroporti from its solitary analyst is for revenues of €124m in 2023 which, if met, would be a substantial 37% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to rise 7.5% to €0.27. Prior to this update, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of €149m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.40 in 2023. Indeed, we can see that the analyst is a lot more bearish about Toscana Aeroporti's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Check out our latest analysis for Toscana Aeroporti

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €13.00 price target, showing that the analyst don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that Toscana Aeroporti's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 37% growth to the end of 2023 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 12% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.2% per year. So it looks like Toscana Aeroporti is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that the analyst has reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Toscana Aeroporti. Unfortunately, the analyst also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on Toscana Aeroporti after the downgrade.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.