ENAV S.p.A. (BIT:ENAV) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

As you might know, ENAV S.p.A. (BIT:ENAV) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at €181m, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about ENAV. View them for free.

Following last week's earnings report, ENAV's four analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €1.02b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 41% to €0.12 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.16 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

View our latest analysis for ENAV

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €4.25, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on ENAV, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €4.70 and the most bearish at €3.50 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that ENAV is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that ENAV's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 6.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ENAV.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ENAV's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €4.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for ENAV going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that ENAV is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.