Reply S.p.A.'s (BIT:REY) Business Is Trailing The Market But Its Shares Aren't

When close to half the companies in Italy have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 14x, you may consider Reply S.p.A. (BIT:REY) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 24.6x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For example, consider that Reply's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Reply

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Reply, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Reply?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Reply would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 3.0% decrease to the company's bottom line. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 60% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 22% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that Reply is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Reply revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Reply with six simple checks.

You might be able to find a better investment than Reply. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.