Downgrade: What You Need To Know About The Latest Triboo S.p.A. (BIT:TB) Forecasts

Market forces rained on the parade of Triboo S.p.A. (BIT:TB) shareholders today, when the covering analyst downgraded their forecasts for this year. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analyst signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Triboo from its single analyst is for revenues of €90m in 2023 which, if met, would be a modest 5.8% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Before this latest update, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of €102m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.08 in 2023. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a earnings per share numbers as well.

Check out our latest analysis for Triboo

Notably, the analyst has cut their price target 19% to €1.70, suggesting concerns around Triboo's valuation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Triboo's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Triboo's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 5.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.3% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Triboo's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that the analyst has reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Triboo. While the analyst did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on Triboo after today.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.