Some May Be Optimistic About Fiera Milano's (BIT:FM) Earnings

Fiera Milano S.p.A.'s (BIT:FM) stock was strong despite it releasing a soft earnings report last week. However, we think the company is showing some signs that things are more promising than they seem.

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Zooming In On Fiera Milano's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to December 2024, Fiera Milano recorded an accrual ratio of -0.41. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. In fact, it had free cash flow of €53m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of €19.3m. Fiera Milano did see its free cash flow drop year on year, which is less than ideal, like a Simpson's episode without Groundskeeper Willie.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Fiera Milano's Profit Performance

Happily for shareholders, Fiera Milano produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Because of this, we think Fiera Milano's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! On the other hand, its EPS actually shrunk in the last twelve months. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. While conducting our analysis, we found that Fiera Milano has 2 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore these bad boys.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Fiera Milano's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.