These Analysts Think UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A.'s (BIT:US) Sales Are Under Threat

The analysts covering UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A. (BIT:US) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering UnipolSai Assicurazioni, is for revenues of €12b in 2023, which would reflect an uncomfortable 19% reduction in UnipolSai Assicurazioni's sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 23% to €0.26. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €14b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.27 in 2023. It looks like analyst sentiment has fallen somewhat in this update, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a minor downgrade to earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for UnipolSai Assicurazioni

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €2.63 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values UnipolSai Assicurazioni at €3.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €2.30. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or that the analysts have a clear view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 19% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.7% per year. It's pretty clear that UnipolSai Assicurazioni's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for UnipolSai Assicurazioni. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that UnipolSai Assicurazioni's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on UnipolSai Assicurazioni after today.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for UnipolSai Assicurazioni going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.