Campari (BIT:CPR) Valuation: Is the Spirits Giant Trading Below Its True Worth?

Davide Campari-Milano (BIT:CPR) shares have spent the past year under the microscope as investors try to make sense of shifting market sentiment. The stock has retreated once again in recent trading, drawing the attention of both long-term followers and those eyeing a potential entry point. With no single news event driving this move, it is a moment for investors to pause and ask if the drop signals something bigger on the horizon, or if it is just business as usual for the drinks giant. Despite some blips and bumps along the way, the story of Campari’s share price over the last year has not exactly inspired confidence. The stock is down around 26%, with 3- and 5-year returns also firmly in negative territory. That said, the company recently managed to generate annual revenue growth of nearly 5% and saw net income increase by 19%. Even so, momentum seems to be gaining only tentatively, with a small positive return over the past three months, but not enough to fully reverse the longer-term trend. After a year like this, it is only natural to wonder whether Campari is now trading below its true value, or if investors are simply anticipating where growth is headed next.

Most Popular Narrative: 11.6% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative suggests Davide Campari-Milano is trading below its estimated fair value, pointing to the potential for future upside if expectations are met.

Significant brand-building investments behind flagship and emerging brands (e.g., Aperol, Crodino, Sarti Rosa) and successful new product launches (RTD formats, non-alcoholic spirits) respond to evolving consumer preferences for premium, experiential, and convenient drinking occasions. This is likely to sustain strong pricing power and drive higher net margins.

Curious how major international expansion, premium brand positioning, and bold profit margin assumptions combine to set this enticing price target? There's a surprising mix of earnings growth and market expectations at play. Discover which financial benchmarks underpin this narrative's undervalued stance and see if they align with your own outlook.

Result: Fair Value of €6.76 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing tariffs and weaker consumer spending in key markets could quickly disrupt Campari's growth outlook. This could challenge the current valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Davide Campari-Milano narrative.

Another View: Market Valuation Method

While the fair value calculation suggests upside, our comparison using a common market-based ratio offers a less optimistic perspective. This approach indicates the shares are expensive compared to others in the industry. Is the first method possibly missing some headwinds?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Davide Campari-Milano to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Davide Campari-Milano Narrative

If you see things differently, or want to dig deeper into the numbers yourself, you can build and test your own perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Davide Campari-Milano research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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