Eni (BIT:ENI): Revisiting Valuation After a 21% Year‑to‑Date Share Price Climb

Eni (BIT:ENI) has been quietly grinding higher this year, and with the stock up around 21% year to date and roughly 30% over the past year, investors are starting to re-check the valuation.

See our latest analysis for Eni.

That steady climb has been backed by improving sentiment toward energy names and Eni specifically. A 90 day share price return of around 9.5% has fed into a 5 year total shareholder return above 150%, suggesting momentum is still leaning in its favor.

If Eni’s recent run has you thinking more broadly about energy, it could be worth exploring other opportunities across aerospace and defense stocks as part of your next idea hunt.

With earnings still growing and shares trading only slightly below analyst targets despite a strong multi year run, the key question now is whether Eni is still undervalued or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 0.4% Undervalued

With Eni closing at €16.35 against a narrative fair value of roughly €16.42, the story hinges on how future projects reshape earnings power.

The acceleration of Eni's biorefining and sustainable mobility businesses, including multiple new biorefinery projects and partnerships (e.g., Ares in Plenitude, KKR in Enilive), supports growth in lower carbon, higher margin revenue streams. Enhanced market demand and supportive regulatory changes, especially in EU and US biofuels, are likely catalysts for margin expansion and improved return on equity.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue growth, fatter margins, and a lower future earnings multiple can still justify upside from here? The narrative’s numbers may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of €16.42 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent losses at Versalis and slower than expected progress at Plenitude could weigh on cash flows and challenge the upbeat valuation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Eni narrative.

Build Your Own Eni Narrative

If you would rather dig into the numbers yourself or see the story differently, you can shape a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Eni research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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