Analysts Just Shipped A Substantial Upgrade To Their Exor N.V. (BIT:EXO) Estimates

By
Simply Wall St
Published
July 24, 2021
BIT:EXO
Source: Shutterstock

Celebrations may be in order for Exor N.V. (BIT:EXO) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with the analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance.

Following the latest upgrade, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Exor, is for revenues of €1.5b in 2021, which would reflect a concerning 99% reduction in Exor's sales over the past 12 months. The losses are expected to disappear over the next year or so, with forecasts for a profit of €6.24 per share this year. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.59 in 2021. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Exor

earnings-and-revenue-growth
BIT:EXO Earnings and Revenue Growth July 24th 2021

Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of €86.96, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Exor, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €106 and the most bearish at €64.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 2.1% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 99% decline in revenue until the end of 2021. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 68% per year. So it's pretty clear that Exor sales are expected to decline at a faster rate than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. Notably, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, with sales performing well although Exor's revenue growth is expected to trail that of the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So Exor could be a good candidate for more research.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Exor analysts - going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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