We Think Autogrill (BIT:AGL) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 16, 2019
BIT:AGL

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Autogrill S.p.A. (BIT:AGL) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

View 4 warning signs we detected for Autogrill

What Is Autogrill's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2019 Autogrill had debt of €1.09b, up from €950.3m in one year. On the flip side, it has €327.3m in cash leading to net debt of about €764.9m.

BIT:AGL Historical Debt, December 16th 2019
BIT:AGL Historical Debt, December 16th 2019

A Look At Autogrill's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Autogrill had liabilities of €1.27b due within a year, and liabilities of €3.27b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had €327.3m in cash and €264.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling €3.95b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit casts a shadow over the €2.39b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Autogrill would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Autogrill has net debt worth 1.7 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 3.2 times the interest expense. It seems that the business incurs large depreciation and amortisation charges, so maybe its debt load is heavier than it would first appear, since EBITDA is arguably a generous measure of earnings. Also relevant is that Autogrill has grown its EBIT by a very respectable 22% in the last year, thus enhancing its ability to pay down debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Autogrill (of which 1 is major) which any shareholder or potential investor should be aware of.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Autogrill recorded free cash flow of 35% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Autogrill's level of total liabilities was disappointing. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Autogrill's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. Given our hesitation about the stock, it would be good to know if Autogrill insiders have sold any shares recently. You click here to find out if insiders have sold recently.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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