Technogym S.p.A.'s (BIT:TGYM) Popularity With Investors Is Under Threat From Overpricing

When close to half the companies in Italy have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 15x, you may consider Technogym S.p.A. (BIT:TGYM) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 27.4x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Technogym has been doing relatively well. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Technogym's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 19% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 40% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 13% per year as estimated by the ten analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 19% per year growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's alarming that Technogym's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Technogym's P/E?

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Technogym's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Technogym that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Technogym's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.