Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for BIT:ECNL using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
BIT:ECNL DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Aquafil's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Aquafil's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Aquafil's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Aquafil's earnings are expected to grow by 9.4% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Aquafil's revenue is expected to grow by 2.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Aquafil's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
4/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
Mr. Giulio Bonazzi serves as the Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President of Aquafil S.p.A. In 1987, Mr. Bonazzi started his career, working in the family business. After a year working in the commercial and technical divisions of Aquafil S.p.A., he attended a six-month training course at Horizon Carpet in the United States. In 1989 he became assistant production manager at the Arco plant, and a year later took over management of the division. Since 1991 he has also been a key figure at the Rovereto plant, where he implemented a restructuring program with the aim of rebalancing the accounts and boosting productivity. Early in 1992, he was given the task of restructuring Tessilbrenta, one of the family's businesses. He was also involved in the move to Slovenia, assisting with the acquisition of the Kranj factory. In 1994 he returned to Aquafil S.p.A., working on the acquisition of Julon d.d., an enterprise which was to become a fundamental asset for the Group. From 1995 to 1998 he held the office of General Manager at Julon, relocating with his family to Slovenia. In 1999 he returned to Italy as Vice Chairman of Aquafil S.p.A., before becoming Chairman of the group in 2008. At the end of 2011, he was elected as President of CIRFS, the European Association of the man-made fiber producers. Mr. Bonazzi graduated in Business Economics from the University of Venice.
Insufficient data for Giulio to compare compensation growth.
Giulio's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Italy.
CFO & Executive Director
Vice Chairman of BFC Industrial Activities
Vice Chairperson of Finance Department & Executive Officer
GM & Executive Director
CEO & MD of Bcf Business Unit
Head of Energy & Recycling Business Unit
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Aquafil board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Is Aquafil S.p.A. (BIT:ECNL) An Attractive Dividend Stock?
Dividends can be underrated but they form a large part of investment returns, playing an important role in compounding returns in the long run. … (BIT:ECNL) has begun paying dividends recently. … Participate in a short research study and receive a 6-month subscription to the award winning Simply Wall St research tool (valued at $60)
Do Institutions Own Aquafil S.p.A. (BIT:ECNL) Shares?
Large companies usually have institutions as shareholders, and we usually see insiders owning shares in smaller companies. … With a market capitalization of €483m, Aquafil is a small cap stock, so it might not be well known by many institutional investors. … institutions own shares in the company.
Is Aquafil SpA (BIT:ECNL) A Smart Choice For Dividend Investors?
Dividends can be underrated but they form a large part of investment returns, playing an important role in compounding returns in the long run. … How I analyze a dividend stock … Whenever I am looking at a potential dividend stock investment, I always check these five metrics:
When Can We Expect A Profit From Space3 Sp.A. (BIT:ECNL)?
I’ve put together a brief outline of industry analyst expectations for ECNL, its year of breakeven and its implied growth rate. … BIT:ECNL Past Future Earnings Mar 9th 18 Underlying developments driving ECNL’s growth isn’t the focus of this broad overview, though, bear in mind that generally a high growth rate is not out of the ordinary, particularly when a company is in a period of investment. … ECNL currently has no debt on its balance sheet, which is quite unusual for a cash-burning loss-making, growth company, which usually has a high level of debt relative to its equity.
Aquafil S.p.A. produces and sells polyamide 6 fibers and polymers in Italy and internationally. It offers bulk continuous filament fibers for the textile flooring sector and used in hotels, airports, offices, residential buildings, and the automotive market; nylon textile fibers for sportswear, classic, and technical or specialist apparel; and nylon 6 polymers primarily for engineering plastics sector and molding industry. The company also designs and constructs chemical plants. Aquafil S.p.A. markets its products under the Dryarn and ECONYL brands. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Arco, Italy.
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