Today is shaping up negative for Energy S.p.A. (BIT:ENY) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business. Investors however, have been notably more optimistic about Energy recently, with the stock price up a noteworthy 22% to €2.42 in the past week. With such a sharp increase, it seems brokers may have seen something that is not yet being priced in by the wider market.
Following the downgrade, the consensus from two analysts covering Energy is for revenues of €65m in 2023, implying a stressful 43% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to dive 61% to €0.11 in the same period. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €76m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.17 in 2023. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a pretty serious decline to earnings per share numbers as well.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 43% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 30% over the last year. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.9% per year. It's pretty clear that Energy's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. After a cut like that, investors could be forgiven for thinking analysts are a lot more bearish on Energy, and a few readers might choose to steer clear of the stock.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.
Find out whether Energy is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.View the Free Analysis
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.