Does Ferrari’s €3.5B Share Buyback and Dividend Hike Reinforce the Bull Case for BIT:RACE?

• Ferrari recently announced a series of major shareholder initiatives, including a new share repurchase program of up to €3.5 billion, a proposal to increase its dividend payout to 40% of adjusted net profit, and updated long-term financial guidance with projected net revenues of about €9 billion by 2030.
• These moves indicate Ferrari's commitment to rewarding shareholders while signaling confidence in its continued brand strength and future earnings potential, even as its Formula 1 performance garners scrutiny.
• We'll now explore how Ferrari's expanded buyback and dividend plans may influence its investment case and long-term revenue outlook.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Ferrari Investment Narrative Recap

To own Ferrari stock, I believe you need confidence in the company's continued ability to preserve its brand cachet and pricing power while successfully broadening its product mix and adapting to shifting luxury consumption trends. The newly announced €3.5 billion share repurchase and enhanced dividend policy reinforce Ferrari’s commitment to shareholder returns, but these moves do not materially alter the near-term catalyst: Ferrari’s transition to electrification and the critical timing of upcoming EV launches. However, margin pressure from industry-wide cost inflation remains a visible risk.

Among the recent news, Ferrari’s updated 2030 guidance stands out, projecting net revenues of about €9 billion and strong margins by leveraging order book visibility and a richer product mix, including personalization and higher-end models. This guidance is closely tied to future earnings resilience, yet its delivery may depend on successfully managing both vehicle lineup changes and fluctuating demand at the top end of the market.

By contrast, investors should also be aware of how shifts in luxury consumption patterns could challenge Ferrari’s strategy if...

Read the full narrative on Ferrari (it's free!)

Ferrari's narrative projects €8.8 billion revenue and €2.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.1% yearly revenue growth and a €0.5 billion earnings increase from €1.6 billion today.

Uncover how Ferrari's forecasts yield a €447.87 fair value, a 31% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twelve individual fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range between €81.82 and €480 per share. While some see potential upside fueled by Ferrari’s ongoing expansion of hybrid and electric models, others highlight the risk that evolving luxury demand trends could affect long-term earnings. Explore how your expectations compare.

Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Ferrari - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Ferrari Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Ferrari research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Ferrari research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ferrari's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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