Investors who have held Piaggio & C (BIT:PIA) over the last year have watched its earnings decline along with their investment
Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. Investors in Piaggio & C. SpA (BIT:PIA) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 31%. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 25%. At least the damage isn't so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 16% in that time. But it's up 8.4% in the last week.
While the stock has risen 8.4% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Unfortunately Piaggio & C reported an EPS drop of 33% for the last year. We note that the 31% share price drop is very close to the EPS drop. Therefore one could posit that the market has not become more concerned about the company, despite the lower EPS. Instead, the change in the share price seems to reduction in earnings per share, alone.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Dive deeper into Piaggio & C's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Piaggio & C's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Piaggio & C's TSR for the last 1 year was -27%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Piaggio & C shareholders are down 27% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 25%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.7%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Piaggio & C that you should be aware of before investing here.
We will like Piaggio & C better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Italian exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Piaggio & C might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.