NTPC Limited Just Missed EPS By 9.8%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

NTPC Limited (NSE:NTPC) last week reported its latest second-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of ₹448b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.8% to hit ₹5.23 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NTPC after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, NTPC's nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be ₹1.84t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 9.9% to ₹22.06 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹2.03t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹24.79 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

View our latest analysis for NTPC

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹417 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic NTPC analyst has a price target of ₹490 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹325. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.6% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. It's pretty clear that NTPC's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for NTPC. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on NTPC. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for NTPC going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for NTPC (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.