NTPC Limited Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

NTPC Limited (NSE:NTPC) came out with its annual results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. NTPC reported ₹1.9t in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ₹24.16 beat expectations, being 7.6% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, NTPC's 13 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be ₹1.89t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 5.4% to ₹22.86 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹2.04t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹24.82 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for NTPC

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹415 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic NTPC analyst has a price target of ₹500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹320. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that NTPC's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 14% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than NTPC.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NTPC going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for NTPC (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.