David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that NLC India Limited (NSE:NLCINDIA) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for NLC India
What Is NLC India's Debt?
As you can see below, NLC India had ₹220.6b of debt at March 2022, down from ₹272.3b a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹7.69b, its net debt is less, at about ₹212.9b.
How Healthy Is NLC India's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that NLC India had liabilities of ₹62.5b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹271.6b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹7.69b and ₹37.4b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total ₹289.1b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the ₹102.9b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, NLC India would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
NLC India has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.5 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 2.9 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Even more troubling is the fact that NLC India actually let its EBIT decrease by 8.0% over the last year. If that earnings trend continues the company will face an uphill battle to pay off its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since NLC India will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, NLC India recorded free cash flow worth 50% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
Mulling over NLC India's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. Having said that, its ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow isn't such a worry. Overall, it seems to us that NLC India's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example NLC India has 4 warning signs (and 2 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:NLCINDIA
Established dividend payer with adequate balance sheet.