Is Adani Green Energy (NSE:ADANIGREEN) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Adani Green Energy Limited (NSE:ADANIGREEN) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Adani Green Energy

What Is Adani Green Energy's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2021 Adani Green Energy had ₹429.4b of debt, an increase on ₹197.5b, over one year. However, it also had ₹36.7b in cash, and so its net debt is ₹392.7b.

A Look At Adani Green Energy's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Adani Green Energy had liabilities of ₹103.7b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹384.0b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹36.7b and ₹13.8b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total ₹437.1b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit isn't so bad because Adani Green Energy is worth a massive ₹1.88t, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Adani Green Energy shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (14.3), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.7 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. The good news is that Adani Green Energy grew its EBIT a smooth 45% over the last twelve months. Like a mother's loving embrace of a newborn that sort of growth builds resilience, putting the company in a stronger position to manage its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Adani Green Energy's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Adani Green Energy saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

Our View

Adani Green Energy's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and net debt to EBITDA definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its EBIT growth rate tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Adani Green Energy is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Adani Green Energy you should be aware of, and 2 of them don't sit too well with us.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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