Estimating The Fair Value Of InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE:INDIGO)

Key Insights

• InterGlobe Aviation's estimated fair value is ₹2,679 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of ₹3,052 suggests InterGlobe Aviation is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Analyst price target for INDIGO is ₹3,139, which is 17% above our fair value estimate

Does the January share price for InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE:INDIGO) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for InterGlobe Aviation

The Method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹158.0b	₹145.3b	₹128.0b	₹120.1b	₹117.4b	₹117.8b	₹120.6b	₹125.0b	₹130.7b	₹137.5b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Est @ -6.15%	Est @ -2.29%	Est @ 0.42%	Est @ 2.31%	Est @ 3.64%	Est @ 4.56%	Est @ 5.21%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 16%	₹136.6k	₹108.6k	₹82.7k	₹67.1k	₹56.7k	₹49.2k	₹43.5k	₹39.0k	₹35.3k	₹32.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹651b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 16%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹137b× (1 + 6.7%) ÷ (16%– 6.7%) = ₹1.6t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹1.6t÷ ( 1 + 16%)¹⁰= ₹383b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹1.0t. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹3.1k, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at InterGlobe Aviation as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 16%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.073. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for InterGlobe Aviation

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For InterGlobe Aviation, we've compiled three important items you should further research:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for InterGlobe Aviation we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does INDIGO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.