Earnings Not Telling The Story For Senco Gold Limited (NSE:SENCO) After Shares Rise 29%

Senco Gold Limited (NSE:SENCO) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

Since its price has surged higher, Senco Gold's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 47.8x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 32x and even P/E's below 18x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Senco Gold could be doing better as it's been growing earnings less than most other companies lately. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this lacklustre earnings performance will improve markedly. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Senco Gold

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Senco Gold.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Senco Gold's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 4.9% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 152% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the four analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 23% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 22% each year, which is not materially different.

In light of this, it's curious that Senco Gold's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Senco Gold's P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Senco Gold currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is only in line with the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Senco Gold, and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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