Has The Phoenix Mills Limited's (NSE:PHOENIXLTD) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?

Most readers would already be aware that Phoenix Mills' (NSE:PHOENIXLTD) stock increased significantly by 40% over the past three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Specifically, we decided to study Phoenix Mills' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Phoenix Mills

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Phoenix Mills is:

1.2% = ₹698m ÷ ₹60b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2020).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every ₹1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of ₹0.01.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Phoenix Mills' Earnings Growth And 1.2% ROE

It is quite clear that Phoenix Mills' ROE is rather low. Even when compared to the industry average of 3.9%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. In spite of this, Phoenix Mills was able to grow its net income considerably, at a rate of 28% in the last five years. We believe that there might be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Phoenix Mills' growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 7.2% in the same period, which is great to see.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Phoenix Mills''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Phoenix Mills Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

While the company did pay out a portion of its dividend in the past, it currently doesn't pay a dividend. This is likely what's driving the high earnings growth number discussed above.

Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 14% over the next three years. Regardless, the future ROE for Phoenix Mills is speculated to rise to 8.2% despite the anticipated increase in the payout ratio. There could probably be other factors that could be driving the future growth in the ROE.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Phoenix Mills has some positive attributes. Despite its low rate of return, the fact that the company reinvests a very high portion of its profits into its business, no doubt contributed to its high earnings growth. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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