Stock Analysis

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of RPG Life Sciences Limited (NSE:RPGLIFE)

NSEI:RPGLIFE
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Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of RPG Life Sciences Limited (NSE:RPGLIFE) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for RPG Life Sciences

The model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Levered FCF (₹, Millions) ₹360.0m ₹384.6m ₹411.3m ₹440.1m ₹471.3m ₹504.7m ₹540.7m ₹579.4m ₹620.9m ₹665.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 6.68% Est @ 6.84% Est @ 6.94% Est @ 7.02% Est @ 7.07% Est @ 7.11% Est @ 7.13% Est @ 7.15% Est @ 7.16% Est @ 7.17%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 15% ₹314 ₹292 ₹272 ₹254 ₹237 ₹221 ₹206 ₹192 ₹180 ₹168

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹2.3b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (7.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 15%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹665m× (1 + 7.2%) ÷ (15%– 7.2%) = ₹9.4b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹9.4b÷ ( 1 + 15%)10= ₹2.4b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹4.7b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹270, the company appears about fair value at a 4.8% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

NSEI:RPGLIFE Discounted Cash Flow July 10th 2020
NSEI:RPGLIFE Discounted Cash Flow July 10th 2020

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at RPG Life Sciences as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For RPG Life Sciences, we've compiled three further elements you should further research:

  1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for RPG Life Sciences you should know about.
  2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
  3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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