Orchid Pharma Limited Recorded A 27% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

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Orchid Pharma Limited (NSE:ORCHPHARMA) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Orchid Pharma reported a serious miss, with revenue of ₹1.7b falling a huge 27% short of analyst estimates. The bright side is that statutory earnings per share of ₹19.65 were in line with forecasts. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Orchid Pharma after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the three analysts covering Orchid Pharma are now predicting revenues of ₹11.6b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a substantial 37% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 3.0% to ₹16.30 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹14.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹28.63 in 2026. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

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It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 32% to ₹979. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Orchid Pharma analyst has a price target of ₹1,112 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹900. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Orchid Pharma is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Orchid Pharma's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 52% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 17% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Orchid Pharma to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Orchid Pharma's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Orchid Pharma going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Orchid Pharma's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.