Stock Analysis

Lupin Limited Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

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NSEI:LUPIN

Lupin Limited (NSE:LUPIN) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.5% to hit ₹57b. Lupin reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) ₹18.64, which was a notable 16% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Lupin

NSEI:LUPIN Earnings and Revenue Growth November 10th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Lupin from 31 analysts is for revenues of ₹221.5b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 3.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 16% to ₹66.54. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹221.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹62.44 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Lupin's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of ₹2,073, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Lupin, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹2,750 and the most bearish at ₹1,397 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Lupin's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Lupin is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Lupin's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Lupin's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Lupin going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Lupin that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.