Bal Pharma Limited's (NSE:BALPHARMA) 26% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Despite an already strong run, Bal Pharma Limited (NSE:BALPHARMA) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 51% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, Bal Pharma may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 61.2x, since almost half of all companies in India have P/E ratios under 31x and even P/E's lower than 17x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For example, consider that Bal Pharma's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Bal Pharma

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Bal Pharma, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Bal Pharma?

Bal Pharma's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 19%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 25% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that Bal Pharma is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Bal Pharma's P/E?

Shares in Bal Pharma have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Bal Pharma currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Bal Pharma (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Bal Pharma. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.