Stock Analysis

Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their Aurobindo Pharma Limited (NSE:AUROPHARMA) Price Target To ₹1,422

NSEI:AUROPHARMA
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It's been a good week for Aurobindo Pharma Limited (NSE:AUROPHARMA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.9% to ₹1,462. Revenues of ₹76b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at ₹15.69, missing estimates by 3.0%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Aurobindo Pharma after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Aurobindo Pharma

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NSEI:AUROPHARMA Earnings and Revenue Growth August 13th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aurobindo Pharma from 22 analysts is for revenues of ₹316.4b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 6.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 12% to ₹67.24. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹316.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹66.47 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 6.0% to ₹1,422. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Aurobindo Pharma analyst has a price target of ₹1,930 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹980. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aurobindo Pharma's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aurobindo Pharma's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 10% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Aurobindo Pharma is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Aurobindo Pharma going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Aurobindo Pharma's balance sheet, and whether we think Aurobindo Pharma is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.