Stock Analysis

Alembic Pharmaceuticals Limited (NSE:APLLTD) Shares Could Be 21% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

NSEI:APLLTD
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Key Insights

  • Alembic Pharmaceuticals' estimated fair value is ₹722 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of ₹574 suggests Alembic Pharmaceuticals is 21% undervalued
  • Analyst price target for APLLTD is ₹677 which is 6.3% below our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Alembic Pharmaceuticals Limited (NSE:APLLTD) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Alembic Pharmaceuticals

The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (₹, Millions) ₹1.89b ₹4.23b ₹4.48b ₹7.87b ₹10.2b ₹12.5b ₹14.8b ₹16.9b ₹19.0b ₹21.0b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x7 Analyst x7 Analyst x5 Analyst x1 Est @ 29.59% Est @ 22.75% Est @ 17.96% Est @ 14.61% Est @ 12.26% Est @ 10.62%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 14% ₹1.7k ₹3.3k ₹3.1k ₹4.7k ₹5.4k ₹5.9k ₹6.1k ₹6.1k ₹6.1k ₹5.9k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹48b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 6.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 14%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹21b× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (14%– 6.8%) = ₹333b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹333b÷ ( 1 + 14%)10= ₹94b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹142b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹574, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 21% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
NSEI:APLLTD Discounted Cash Flow January 4th 2023

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Alembic Pharmaceuticals as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Alembic Pharmaceuticals

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Indian market.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Alembic Pharmaceuticals, we've compiled three further elements you should explore:

  1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Alembic Pharmaceuticals has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does APLLTD's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Alembic Pharmaceuticals is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.