Stock Analysis

A Look At The Fair Value Of Alembic Pharmaceuticals Limited (NSE:APLLTD)

NSEI:APLLTD
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Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Alembic Pharmaceuticals fair value estimate is ₹446
  • Current share price of ₹520 suggests Alembic Pharmaceuticals is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • The ₹601 analyst price target for APLLTD is 35% more than our estimate of fair value

Does the April share price for Alembic Pharmaceuticals Limited (NSE:APLLTD) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Alembic Pharmaceuticals

The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (₹, Millions) ₹1.65b ₹4.31b ₹4.47b ₹6.98b ₹8.36b ₹9.69b ₹11.0b ₹12.2b ₹13.4b ₹14.6b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x7 Analyst x8 Analyst x7 Analyst x1 Est @ 19.85% Est @ 15.94% Est @ 13.20% Est @ 11.28% Est @ 9.94% Est @ 9.00%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 15% ₹1.4k ₹3.3k ₹3.0k ₹4.0k ₹4.2k ₹4.3k ₹4.2k ₹4.1k ₹3.9k ₹3.7k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹36b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 15%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹15b× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (15%– 6.8%) = ₹201b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹201b÷ ( 1 + 15%)10= ₹51b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹88b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹520, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
NSEI:APLLTD Discounted Cash Flow April 13th 2023

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Alembic Pharmaceuticals as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Alembic Pharmaceuticals

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Indian market.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by earnings.
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Indian market.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Alembic Pharmaceuticals, we've put together three additional items you should consider:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Alembic Pharmaceuticals that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Future Earnings: How does APLLTD's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Alembic Pharmaceuticals is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.