Saregama India Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The third-quarter results for Saregama India Limited (NSE:SAREGAMA) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of ₹2.0b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.3% to hit ₹2.72 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Saregama India

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Saregama India's three analysts is for revenues of ₹10.7b in 2025. This reflects a substantial 45% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 27% to ₹12.37. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹11.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹12.90 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹453 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Saregama India analyst has a price target of ₹467 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹446. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Saregama India's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 34% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.6% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 10% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Saregama India is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Saregama India's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Saregama India. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Saregama India going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Saregama India that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.