UPL Limited Just Missed EPS By 29%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

UPL Limited (NSE:UPL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.4% to ₹637 in the week after its latest yearly results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at ₹9.62, some 29% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at ₹466b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on UPL after the latest results.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in UPL. Read for free now.

Following the latest results, UPL's 20 analysts are now forecasting revenues of ₹499.8b in 2026. This would be a satisfactory 7.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 211% to ₹33.06. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹500.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹38.93 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for UPL

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 5.6% to ₹714, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic UPL analyst has a price target of ₹1,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹470. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the UPL's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that UPL's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.1% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, UPL is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for UPL. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that UPL's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple UPL analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for UPL you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.