Stock Analysis

Does Tirupati Forge (NSE:TIRUPATIFL) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

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The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' While a well funded company may sustain losses for years, it will need to generate a profit eventually, or else investors will move on and the company will wither away.

Despite being in the age of tech-stock blue-sky investing, many investors still adopt a more traditional strategy; buying shares in profitable companies like Tirupati Forge (NSE:TIRUPATIFL). While this doesn't necessarily speak to whether it's undervalued, the profitability of the business is enough to warrant some appreciation - especially if its growing.

See our latest analysis for Tirupati Forge

How Fast Is Tirupati Forge Growing Its Earnings Per Share?

In the last three years Tirupati Forge's earnings per share took off; so much so that it's a bit disingenuous to use these figures to try and deduce long term estimates. Thus, it makes sense to focus on more recent growth rates, instead. In impressive fashion, Tirupati Forge's EPS grew from ₹0.41 to ₹0.95, over the previous 12 months. Year on year growth of 133% is certainly a sight to behold. The best case scenario? That the business has hit a true inflection point.

Top-line growth is a great indicator that growth is sustainable, and combined with a high earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margin, it's a great way for a company to maintain a competitive advantage in the market. The good news is that Tirupati Forge is growing revenues, and EBIT margins improved by 3.4 percentage points to 12%, over the last year. Ticking those two boxes is a good sign of growth, in our book.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart.

NSEI:TIRUPATIFL Earnings and Revenue History March 15th 2023

Since Tirupati Forge is no giant, with a market capitalisation of ₹985m, you should definitely check its cash and debt before getting too excited about its prospects.

Are Tirupati Forge Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Seeing insiders owning a large portion of the shares on issue is often a good sign. Their incentives will be aligned with the investors and there's less of a probability in a sudden sell-off that would impact the share price. So we're pleased to report that Tirupati Forge insiders own a meaningful share of the business. To be exact, company insiders hold 59% of the company, so their decisions have a significant impact on their investments. Intuition will tell you this is a good sign because it suggests they will be incentivised to build value for shareholders over the long term. Valued at only ₹985m Tirupati Forge is really small for a listed company. So this large proportion of shares owned by insiders only amounts to ₹584m. This isn't an overly large holding but it should still keep the insiders motivated to deliver the best outcomes for shareholders.

It's good to see that insiders are invested in the company, but are remuneration levels reasonable? Well, based on the CEO pay, you'd argue that they are indeed. For companies with market capitalisations under ₹16b, like Tirupati Forge, the median CEO pay is around ₹3.6m.

The CEO of Tirupati Forge was paid just ₹1.8m in total compensation for the year ending March 2022. This could be considered a token amount, and indicates that the company does not need to use payment to motivate the CEO - that is often a good sign. CEO compensation is hardly the most important aspect of a company to consider, but when it's reasonable, that gives a little more confidence that leadership are looking out for shareholder interests. It can also be a sign of good governance, more generally.

Should You Add Tirupati Forge To Your Watchlist?

Tirupati Forge's earnings per share have been soaring, with growth rates sky high. An added bonus for those interested is that management hold a heap of stock and the CEO pay is quite reasonable, illustrating good cash management. The sharp increase in earnings could signal good business momentum. Tirupati Forge certainly ticks a few boxes, so we think it's probably well worth further consideration. Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Tirupati Forge (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that we have uncovered.

The beauty of investing is that you can invest in almost any company you want. But if you prefer to focus on stocks that have demonstrated insider buying, here is a list of companies with insider buying in the last three months.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

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