Stock Analysis

The five-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on S H Kelkar (NSE:SHK) shareholders as stock falls 13% over the past week

Published
NSEI:SHK

It hasn't been the best quarter for S H Kelkar and Company Limited (NSE:SHK) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 29% in that time. But the silver lining is the stock is up over five years. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 82%, less than the market return of 156%.

While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

Check out our latest analysis for S H Kelkar

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

S H Kelkar's earnings per share are down 21% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.

The modest 0.4% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. On the other hand, S H Kelkar's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 13% over the last five years. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NSEI:SHK Earnings and Revenue Growth January 28th 2025

This free interactive report on S H Kelkar's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of S H Kelkar, it has a TSR of 92% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that S H Kelkar shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 15% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 14% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with S H Kelkar (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We will like S H Kelkar better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.