NCL Industries' (NSE:NCLIND) underlying earnings growth outpaced the notable return generated for shareholders over the past three years

By
Simply Wall St
Published
May 13, 2022
NSEI:NCLIND
Source: Shutterstock

NCL Industries Limited (NSE:NCLIND) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 17% in the last month. In contrast the stock is up over the last three years. Arguably you'd have been better off buying an index fund, because the gain of 25% in three years isn't amazing.

Although NCL Industries has shed ₹841m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

View our latest analysis for NCL Industries

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

NCL Industries was able to grow its EPS at 53% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. The average annual share price increase of 8% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 6.95.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NSEI:NCLIND Earnings Per Share Growth May 13th 2022

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on NCL Industries' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, NCL Industries' TSR for the last 3 years was 36%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in NCL Industries had a tough year, with a total loss of 11% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 13%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 3% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for NCL Industries that you should be aware of before investing here.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IN exchanges.

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