Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Jindal Saw Limited (NSE:JINDALSAW) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Jindal Saw
What Is Jindal Saw's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Jindal Saw had debt of ₹49.2b at the end of March 2023, a reduction from ₹60.3b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹2.06b, its net debt is less, at about ₹47.2b.
How Healthy Is Jindal Saw's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Jindal Saw had liabilities of ₹80.4b due within a year, and liabilities of ₹29.3b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had ₹2.06b in cash and ₹38.4b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling ₹69.3b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of ₹111.2b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Jindal Saw has net debt worth 2.4 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 4.0 times the interest expense. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. It is well worth noting that Jindal Saw's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 99% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Jindal Saw's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Jindal Saw recorded free cash flow worth 57% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Jindal Saw was the fact that it seems able to grow its EBIT confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to cover its interest expense with its EBIT. Considering this range of data points, we think Jindal Saw is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Jindal Saw (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:JINDALSAW
Jindal Saw
Engages in the manufacture and supply of iron and steel pipes and pellets in India and internationally.
Solid track record with excellent balance sheet and pays a dividend.